For the seventh time in the 40-year history of the ACC Football Kickoff, Clemson has been picked to win the league. That could be a good sign for the Tigers, as the media have correctly predicted the conference champion 59 percent of the time leading up to this year.
But do media members typically pick Clemson to finish higher than it will?
Over the years, five ACC teams have, on average, finished a portion of a spot lower than predicted. In fan terms, that means that five league members are historically “overrated.”
| 2016/17 | ||
|---|---|---|
| CURRENT ROSTER | ||
| PLAYER | POS | CLASS |
| Avry Holmes | G | SR |
| Austin Ajukwa | G | SR |
| Jaron Blossomgame | F | SR |
| Sidy Djitte | C | SR |
| Gabe DeVoe | G | JR |
| Donte Grantham | F | JR |
| Legend Robertin | C | JR |
| Shelton Mitchell | G | SO |
| Marcquise Reed | G | SO |
| Ty Hudson | G | SO |
| Scott Spencer | F | FR |
| COMMITMENTS 2017 | ||
| NONE | ||
| TOP TARGETS | ||
| M.J. Walker | G | ★★★★ |
| Blake Harris | G | ★★★★ |
| Devontae Shuler | G | ★★★★ |
| TyShon Alexander | G | ★★★★ |
| Zach Butler | G | ★★ |
| Peyton Broughton | G | ★★ |
| Melo Eggleston | F | ★★★★ |
| Alex Reese | F | ★★★★ |
| Chuma Okeke | F | ★★★★ |
| Kodye Pugh | F | ★★★ |
| Wyatt Wilkes | F | ★★ |
| Brachen Hazen | F | ★★ |
| Samuel Japhet-Mathias | C | ★★★★ |
| Scholarships Open | 4 | |
| Projected Losses: | 4 | |
| Needs: | F/C (2), G (2) |
Based on the numbers, Miami has been the most overrated team in the conference, but it’s worth noting that the Hurricanes are working with a sample size of only 11 years. Since The U played its first ACC season in 2004, the program has twice fallen at least three spots short of its predicted finish. Last fall, the Hurricanes were picked to finish first in the Coastal before ending up at sixth, and in 2006, they were fourth in the division standings after being picked to finish first.
Of the league’s original members, North Carolina has been by far the most overrated team. Despite a few years in which the Tar Heels finished significantly higher than predicted (in 2004, they finished seven spots better than where they were picked), they’ve been selected too high in the preseason on 22 occasions since 1976.
It’s been nearly impossible for expansion members Florida State (picked first in the ACC or the Atlantic Division 21 of 23 times between 1992-2014) and Virginia Tech (picked first in the ACC or the Coastal Division seven of 11 times between 2004-14) to meet the lofty expectations that have been set, so it’s no surprise that both ended up in the “overrated” category. Had Clemson finished one spot better twice or two spots better once, the Tigers would have escaped this list.
Louisville neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in its ACC debut, but eight league programs have earned a reputation for being underrated.
| 2015/16 | ||
|---|---|---|
| CURRENT ROSTER | ||
| PLAYER | POS | CLASS |
| Marshall Plumlee | C | SR |
| Amile Jefferson | F | SR |
| Matt Jones | G | JR |
| Nick Pagliuca | G | JR |
| Grayson Allen | G | SO |
| Sean Obi | F | SO |
| Chase Jeter | F | FR |
| Luke Kennard | G | FR |
| Brandon Ingram | G | FR |
| Derryck Thornton | G | FR |
| Antonio Vrankovic | C | FR |
| Justin Robinson | F | FR |
| COMMITMENTS 2016 | ||
| Jayson Tatum | G | ★★★★★ |
| TOP 2016 TARGETS | ||
| Frank Jackson | G | ★★★★★ |
| Dennis Smith | G | ★★★★★ |
| Harry Giles | F | ★★★★★ |
| Wenyen Gabriel | F | ★★★★ |
| Marques Bolden | C | ★★★★★ |
| Scholarships Open | 2-4 | |
| Projected Losses: | 2-4 | |
| Needs: | F/C (2-3), G (1-2) |
Boston College tops the list, as the Eagles have finished an average of 1.3 spots per year higher than predicted since joining the league in 2005. In their first two years in the ACC, Pittsburgh and Syracuse proved they deserved more preseason love from the media.
Arguably standing out the most of the underrated teams is Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have ended up five spots higher than predicted a jaw-dropping four times in the last 39 years. Surprisingly, however, they’ve exceeded expectations less than half the time.
While Georgia Tech’s average may be lower than that of Wake Forest, the Yellow Jackets have finished higher than they were picked 19 times since becoming a member of the conference 32 years ago. Prior to this year, the Ramblin’ Wreck had never been picked to win the ACC or the Coastal Division.