In Tuesday’s roundtable, the ACCSports.com team discussed the upcoming 2015-16 college basketball season.
How many ACC teams will make the NCAA tournament this year, and who’s getting in?
Adam Powell
I believe the ACC will get between eight and nine schools in this year. I believe North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, NC State, Florida State and Miami are highly likely to make their way in this year. That’s six for sure. The other two to three, in my opinion, will come from Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville and Notre Dame. Perhaps three of those four get in, giving the ACC nine teams in the Big Dance for the first time ever. But eight should be a given, especially if the ACC has that many schools with at least a 9-9 or 10-8 mark in league play.
Louisville is a wild card given the turmoil surrounding the Cardinals right now, as well as the personnel they have to replace. Syracuse has improved in some areas but still has numerous question marks in its frontcourt. Can Pittsburgh get over the hump and back in the NCAA tourney with nearly half its team brand new? The Panthers have raided the graduate transfer market for an infusion of veteran talent, but can those guys raise their level of play to compete in the ACC? Notre Dame has plenty of returning talent from its Elite Eight squad, including Zach Auguste and Demetrius Jackson, but do they have enough firepower to ensure another NCAA berth without Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton?
The other two schools that might have an outside chance of getting in are Georgia Tech and Clemson, but the Yellow Jackets and Tigers are going to have to overachieve and pull off a handful of upsets to reach the NCAA tournament. I don’t believe that Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Boston College are realistically going to challenge for an NCAA berth this year. But eight or nine schools could be a realistic number this season.
Mark Carroll
Looking at each team’s roster, my gut tells me that eight ACC teams are going to be dancing come March. I really want to say nine, but that number just sounds unrealistic.
Let’s start with the teams that are definitely in: North Carolina, Virginia, Duke and Notre Dame. You could even take away the best player from UNC (Marcus Paige) and UVa (Malcolm Brogdon), and I think those teams would still be capable of making the NCAA tournament. Duke is a little bit more difficult to figure out because the Blue Devils are going to have so many new, young faces in major roles, but the talent is impossible to ignore. The Devils might not be a 1 or 2 seed in the tournament, but they’ll be in the field. Then there’s Notre Dame, which lost two significant pieces but returns two of the top players in the ACC in Demetrius Jackson and Zach Auguste.
After that, there’s a group of teams that should probably be in. Miami leads that group and could probably even be included in the “definitely” category. Louisville is likely going to take a step back, but graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis are really good players and will keep the Cardinals in the hunt. The other team left that should make the NCAA tournament is NC State. The loss of Trevor Lacey dropped the Wolfpack from potential league contender to the middle of the pack, but Mark Gottfried’s teams have generally overachieved, and I like this year’s group provided Cat Barber stays healthy.
Beyond those seven, there’s a handful of other teams that still have a shot. Florida State is my favorite, as the Seminoles return most of their rotation plus an outstanding freshman class. Pittsburgh is another team to keep in mind after the Panthers addressed issues in the frontcourt by bringing in a pair of transfers in the offseason, and I don’t want to rule out Syracuse, even if only because it’s impossible to ignore a team coached by Jim Boeheim (well, at least for most of the year).
Clemson, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are long shots, but I think they get left out. Give me UNC, UVa, Duke, Notre Dame, Miami, Louisville, NC State and FSU, with Pitt as my wild card.
Shawn Krest
I’m trying to find a way to get 10 ACC teams into the NCAA field. It would be a challenge, but I don’t think it’s completely out of the realm of possibility.
North Carolina opens the season as the top team in the nation, and the Tar Heels’ combination of talent and experience makes them a potential national championship contender.
Duke is the defending national champ, and even though the Blue Devils have undergone a roster makeover, experienced senior leaders and the nation’s best freshman class make Duke a factor in the Final Four and title discussion.
Virginia is the defending ACC regular-season champion, and the Cavaliers return their two most important assets: Star player Malcolm Brogdon and coach Tony Bennett, who has designed a defensive scheme that makes the Wahoos one of the league’s top teams.
Then there are the ACC Tournament champions in Notre Dame. The Irish return Demetrius Jackson, who is primed for a breakout season. Plus, coach Mike Brey made a case last season that he’s the Tony Bennett of offense.
Two teams that often find themselves on the bubble should be a little more secure this season. Miami’s combination of Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez makes the Canes the top team in the ACC’s next tier. NC State has an inside-out presence in BeeJay Anya and Cat Barber, and Abdul-Malik Abu may end up being their best player.
That’s six teams. Florida State — which is almost always underrated and brings in an elite freshman class this year — should be seven. Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake, Boston College and Virginia Tech have little or no shot at joining the NCAA party.
That leaves three teams — two of them deeply troubled. Louisville is currently mired in scandal and controversy, but the Cardinals are a talented team. If they can keep their focus on the court, Rick Pitino’s Cardinals should make it in.
Syracuse is currently paying the price for scandal and controversy, but its NCAA penalties don’t include a postseason ban. The Orange may be the longest shot of the 10th team, but they have top-level talent, led by Michael Gbinije, and the suspension of Jim Boeheim for nine games should give them the us-against-the world mentality to get them over the top.
That leaves Pitt. The Panthers are a team of unknowns, but they have a few veteran leaders in James Robinson, Jamel Artis and Michael Young, as well as experienced transfers who will add depth and talent.
I’m going optimistic and putting the Orange and the Panthers in. ACC is getting 10 bids. Book it.