Notre Dame’s hopes of challenging for a spot in the College Football Playoff took a big hit Saturday with its 20-19 loss to Georgia. Hope is not entirely lost for the Irish. But they’ll probably have to run the table and win all their remaining regular season games to have a shot at competing for a national championship.
Brian Kelly and the Irish got an up close and personal taste of the toughest that the ACC has to offer in 2014 and 2015. Those years, the Irish lost narrow, hotly-contested road games at Florida State and Clemson. This season things are considerably more favorable for the Irish. They travel to Boston College Saturday, and then play four ACC opponents in a five-game stretch between Oct. 7 and Nov. 11. Of those four opponents, only Miami is harboring realistic hopes of challenging for a divisional title.
After hosting Miami Ohio in South Bend Sept. 30, the Irish travel to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina. UNC’s atrocious defensive will give the Irish the strong edge in that one. The Irish should also be heavy favorites when they host NC State and Wake Forest back-to-back Oct. 28 and Nov. 4. Notre Dame has to travel to Miami for its third-to-last game of the regular season. The Irish close out with a home game against Navy and a road contest at Stanford Nov. 25.
With spots in the CFP so difficult to grab, a two-loss Notre Dame team will have trouble getting in. But even if they do manage to beat the likes of Michigan State, USC, and Stanford, and sweep all five ACC opponents, will that be enough to sneak in? Could the low number of marquee ACC opponents hurt or even kill their chances? In a word, yes.
The good news for the Irish is that they should win four of the five ACC games, at least on paper. The only ACC game that poses a significant threat to Notre Dame is Miami. The Irish will have a chance to make a statement by beating the Hurricanes, so that game could actually help raise their postseason profile. That won’t be the case with the other four ACC games, unless the Irish win decisively – by four or more touchdowns. It would also help Notre Dame if teams like UNC, NC State, and Wake Forest can produce a winning regular season record.
Notre Dame’s national championship chances aren’t great coming off the Georgia loss. But if they can take care of business in their quintet of ACC matchups – winning them all – they can remain in the conversation. These are ultimate trap games for the Irish. While there’s little to gain on the national stage by beating the likes of Boston College, UNC, NC State, and Wake Forest, a loss is devastating to their postseason hopes. There is absolutely no margin for error. Lose against any of these opponents, and they can hang up any realistic hope of a New Year’s Six bowl game, much less the Playoff.