No matter how you look at it, 4-1 is still just 4-1.
While Wake Forest had plenty of chances to beat Florida State, it didn’t. So the standings just say 4-1. No half-point or asterisk. And that’s going to make the rest of the season very difficult for the Deacons.
The Deacons had the table set for an upset. Wake Forest’s defensive line swarmed the Seminoles, and FSU freshman quarterback James Blackmon was ineffective on a very short leash. But the Wake Forest offense couldn’t turn red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, and it committed costly turnovers for the first time this season. The result was a disappointment instead of a statement.
Dave Clawson was clear after the game that he considers the program past the point of moral victories. But the point is really moot. About the only thing Clawson actually can hope to gain is a better standing with all the recruits in the stands, who saw a good performance in front of a strong home crowd.
The loss puts Clawson and the Deacons on the search for real victories if they hope to make a bowl game. Last season, Wake Forest started 4-0 before losing to NC State. But last season, the Deacons had several winnable games left on the schedule: Syracuse, Army, Virginia and Boston College — all at home. Syracuse, Virginia and BC won five league games between them, and Army was 4-3 when they played at Wake Forest.
The Deacons managed to win two of those games, which was enough to get them to the Military Bowl, where they beat Temple. This season’s schedule is not so inviting.
Wake Forest only has one game that it might be favored to win: Nov. 11 at Syracuse. But even that could be a stretch. Let’s take a closer look:
Oct. 7 at Clemson: The Tigers are 5-0 and ranked No. 2 in the nation. The Deacons have only won twice (last time in 1998) at Clemson since 1962.
Oct. 14 bye week: Wake Forest has been relatively healthy so far, but they’ll have a chance to rest up and get ready for the specialized offensive approach of Georgia Tech.
Oct. 21 at Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are 3-1, but the wins are against lightweights Jacksonville State, UNC and Pitt. Georgia Tech opened with an overtime loss to Tennessee. The Deacons will know a lot more about what they’ll face when GT plays Miami this week.
Oct. 28 vs. Louisville: The Deacons get a home game for the first time in almost a month, and it’s against a team that they’ll be motivated to play after last year’s WakeyLeaks incident. Louisville is currently ranked No. 17, but they also lack impressive wins. Again, the Deacons will know more after Louisville travels to N.C. State this week. Wake Forest could get a small break because the Cardinals will be coming off a trip to Florida State.
Nov. 4 at Notre Dame: The Irish are ranked No. 21, and they rarely lose to unranked non-conference teams at home. But it did happen four times last season, including losses to Duke and Virginia Tech. It’s possible Notre Dame could overlook the Deacons, as it will be coming off games against USC and N.C. State and will have Miami coming up next.
Nov. 11 at Syracuse: This is a must-win, and Syracuse (2-3) has been inconsistent. They lost to Conference USA’s Middle Tennessee State (now 2-3), but were competitive in losses to N.C. State and LSU. The best news for Wake Forest is that Syracuse will be in the middle of its own terrible stretch. The Orange will have just played Clemson, Miami and FSU, with Louisville on deck.
Nov. 18 vs. NC State: The 4-1 Wolfpack jumped into the rankings at No. 24, but its win over Florida State doesn’t look quite as impressive right now. Again, everyone will know more after NC State plays Louisville this week.
Nov. 25 vs. Duke: This very well could be a battle for bowl eligibility for both programs, although the Blue Devils have a better schedule the rest of the way. Duke is 4-1, but just got crushed by Miami.
It looks like the Deacons will need to win on the road at Syracuse, then win at least one against Georgia Tech, NC State and Duke.
That may not sound that difficult, but it runs against trends.
Wake Forest has only won eight road games in the ACC since the 2006 Orange Bowl season, and only two in Clawson’s three-plus seasons. Only one of those teams finished with a winning ACC record (FSU in 2008). The rest were 10-46 in league play. If the Deacons can’t win on the road this season, a bowl bid will require home wins in its final two games against Tobacco Road rivals.
The Deacons are 6-24 in November since 2009 (2-9 under Clawson). A bowl bid looks like it will rely on at least one November win, possibly two. The Deacons have only won two season-ending games in those eight seasons.
Clawson has his work cut out for him. A victory over Florida State would have made that work a lot easier, but the Deacons can’t look back. They must survive Clemson and try to find that fifth win against Georgia Tech.
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