Not long ago, Virginia was 5-1 and the Cavaliers looked like they could be a factor in the ACC Coastal race. But that was before back-to-back losses to Boston College and Pitt, in which UVA was never really in either game.
Now, the question is whether or not the Cavaliers will even play in a bowl game. Virginia will likely be underdogs in each November game, and needs at least one victory to get the sixth win traditionally needed to secure a postseason invitation.
But Virginia’s odds of making it to a bowl game aren’t so simple. Academics could make a difference one way or another. UVA fans probably remember 2004.
Go back a decade-plus
That season the Cavs got off to a 5-0 start and were ranked in the top 10 at one point, but slumped in second half of the season on the way to a third place finish in the ACC.
That should have put Virginia in line for a mid-level bowl game, but turned down an invitation to the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando because it interfered with final exams. The Hoos closed out the season with a less desirable trip to Boise for the MPC Computers Bowl.
This season, the bowls with ACC tie-ins all are scheduled for after Christmas, well after UVa’s exam week, which spans Dec. 7-15.
Whether Virginia wins another game or not, it’s probably in position to field a bowl invitation as the NCAA has made allowances for 5-7 teams to take a spot if there are not enough .500 or better teams to fill the games.
Those are handed out to teams with the highest Academic Progress Rate first. But that’s where it gets a bit tricky for UVa. Surprisingly, there are 68 FBS programs with an APR better than UVa’s 968.
Not all of them will factor in. Penn State, for example, will finish well above the five-win mark while others won’t win more than four. But the Cavs won’t necessarily have first dibs. Virginia may have a victory against UConn, which sits at 3-5, but the Huskies have a one-point edge in APR if it comes to that.
The calendar matters too
Beyond that, the lower-tier bowls that may be looking for 5-7 teams could have festivities and media days that overlap with UVa’s exam schedule.
The Cavaliers could save themselves and their administration some headaches simply by coming up with at least one more victory. But with Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech left on the schedule, that won’t be easy.