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We received an email from one of our members, Liz in Alpharetta, who had a question for ACC Sports Journal staff. If you would like our writers to answer your question or address an issue you think we’ve missed, drop us a line at mailbag@accsports.com

Shawn,

How does Georgia Tech get stuck playing Florida State and Clemson from the Atlantic Division, while Duke gets to play Boston College and Wake? That’s likely going to be a two-game swing in the Coastal Division standings. I understand that one of the opponents is fixed, but the league could take that into account when rotating the other opponent. Tech also plays Georgia and Notre Dame, while Duke has a cakewalk out of conference. That could make a huge difference in bowl bids at the end of the season. 

Liz

Dear Liz,

Thanks for writing. It’s hard to argue with any of the points you make. Crossover opponents can make a two-game swing in the divisional standings, and the non-conference schedule can also affect a team’s bowl bid. If Tech and Duke were equal, the Blue Devils could finish four games ahead of the Jackets just based on schedule.

While we can’t fix the problem in our Mailbag column, we can at least take a look at how big the problem is. As a proxy for strength of schedule, we’ll use the preseason watch lists recently unveiled for all the awards.

Over the last few weeks, 14 awards have released watch lists, which gives a sense of who is expected to be the nation’s best players this upcoming season. So, it would stand to reason that the more watch list players a team has, the better they should be.

First things first, here’s where the ACC teams (full-time and partial members) rank in terms of watch-listed players.

So, in a bit of a surprise, Duke and Virginia Tech are expected to be the most talented members of the ACC this year, with Florida State and Clemson trailing.

That raises another point that Liz didn’t mention. As teams are fighting for bowl positioning, the divisional schedule you play can also have a major impact on your record. In its six Atlantic Division games, Florida State will play 41 watch-listed players (fewer than 7 per game). By comparison, Virginia’s Coastal schedule features 63 watch-listed players (more than 10 per game). In effect, if all of Virginia’s Coastal opponents benched their three best players, the Cavaliers would face a similar divisional schedule to Florida State’s.

The crossover schedule shows an even bigger spread.

While Liz’s Yellow Jackets certainly have a beef, drawing FSU and Clemson, Boston College, who faces Duke and Virginia Tech, faces four more watch listers per crossover game. Meanwhile, Duke and Virginia Tech have an eight-player advantage per game, when it comes to facing elite opponents.

Next, we’ll look at non-conference.

A few things are very apparent. First of all, Triangle football fans will have some long Saturday afternoons in the early season. If you add the mentions for all 12 of Duke, State and Carolina’s non-conference foes, the total would still trail six other teams’ strength of schedule.

Secondly, what is Mike London thinking? With a team not expected to be one of the conference’s best, London has scheduled UCLA, Boise State and Notre Dame. Each of those teams has at least 15 mentions, or more than Duke’s entire non-conference slate.

Putting it all together, here’s a look at overall strength of schedule for ACC teams.

So, while Florida State’s talent level isn’t as high as two Coastal rivals, the Noles have the softest schedule, which should help mask some of the drop-off. Meanwhile, Duke is one of the most talented teams in the league and has one of the least challenging schedules.

Going opponent by opponent, and assuming the more talented team (with more watch listers) will win, we can come up with projections for ACC standings for the upcoming season.

The ACC will end the regular season with ten bowl eligible teams, including undefeated Notre Dame. Since Duke and Virginia Tech both have 17 watch listers, that game is currently listed as a tie. The tie breaker would be the fact that one of Duke’s watch-listed players–Kelby Brown–will miss the season. So Virginia Tech (17) beats an otherwise undefeated Florida State (14) in the ACC championship game.